PECOTA projections

[markakis8]

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/68185/ranking-the-teams-24-through-19-3

You can remove the link if I can't post it. This guy is smoking bananas.

The offense and bullpen alone - abysmal OBP and all - will get us close to .500. I think an above average season from our rotation gets us into the playoffs.

[Frobby]

I respect Schoefield. If you believe that Gallardo is a downgrade from Chen and think the rest of the rotation won't improve, I can definitely see how you'd think we'd be sub-.500 by several games. 74 seems extremely pessimistic but it could happen.

[SilentJames]

They haven't had a losing season in four years, core intact, two years removed from AL East crown and ALDS trip.

Yeah that seems legit.

[MDtransplant757]

Lol. Stats people are dumb. If our pitching does well, we'll be in the playoffs, get a few breaks here and there, WS champs

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[backwardsk]

Of course we could have a losing season though we haven't since 2011. I'd say, on paper, we have better talent going into ST than we have had in the past 10 years. Which year has been better?

I'm not an "on paper" type guy, they need to show it on the field. I am high on Gausman, the BP, and a Tillman comeback. I'm also very intrigued by Kim.

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[MDtransplant757]

That and ESPN will have the Cubs/Yankees/Red Sox being the highest 3, followed by KC (who should be there), Giants (who should be there) and the Nats.

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[PaulFolk]

Lol. Stats people are dumb. If our pitching does well, we'll be in the playoffs, get a few breaks here and there, WS champs

There certainly is a counterargument that can be made. I don't think "stats people are dumb" is a tactful or accurate one, though.

[SilentJames]

If the Orioles become the Padres next year it means not only has the pitching completely imploded but Manny Machado's arm has fallen off, Adam Jones ran through the wall on day one severing his spine and Davis and Wieters both strained intercostals from hugging each other after back to back homers on day three.

This ranking is so absurd I can't even. I just can't even.

Like, I get picking the Orioles near the middle of the pack but yeah that?

[MDtransplant757]

There certainly is a counterargument that can be made. I don't think "stats people are dumb" is a tactful or accurate one, though.

Stats have a place, but to go as far as to pick teams before ST just on stats is dumb. ESPN at this point is the station where everyone (except for those the network doesn't care about much. I.e. Us) hop on the hype train. Teams get so overrated it's ridiculous. Then during the playoffs, the darlings who played in the easy divisions ( Angels in 2014) get picked to win and teams like KC 2014 have to prove everyone wrong. I think it's great to have the other team be riding the hype train and you come out and bring 'em down a noch or two. That's why teams like the Dodgers don't go far in the playoffs is due to the hype. Just my .02, but I think it matters

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[MDtransplant757]

If the Orioles become the Padres next year it means not only has the pitching completely imploded but Manny Machado's arm has fallen off, Adam Jones ran through the wall on day one severing his spine and Davis and Wieters both strained intercostals from hugging each other after back to back homers on day three.

This ranking is so absurd I can't even. I just can't even.

Like, I get picking the Orioles near the middle of the pack but yeah that?

This sounds like the accurate predictions at ESPN. It's annoying.

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[VTech]

At least we won't have to forfeit the #8 pick for any reason

[OFFNY]

o

On July 8th of 2014, the Orioles led the A.L. East by 3 games.

This is what Schoenfield predicted would happen:

Lucky and Good: Orioles Will Win A.L. East

(By David Schoenfield)

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/49459/lucky-and-good-orioles-will-win-al-east

THE THREAD: o http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php/142261-Lucky-and-Good-Orioles-Will-Win-A-L-East-(Schoenfield)

[OFFNY]

o

Also, as Frobby pointed out in his thread from October of 2014, Schoenfield stated that the better team won the 2014 A.L.D.S. after the Orioles swept the Tigers, 3 games to 0:

ESPN's Schoenfield: Better Team Won, as Orioles Sweep

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/52276/better-team-won-as-orioles-sweep

THE THREAD: o http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php/144415-ESPN-s-Schoenfield-Better-Team-Won-as-O-s-Sweep?highlight=Schoenfield

[MDtransplant757]

o

On July 8th of 2014, the Orioles led the A.L. East by 3 games.

This is what Schoenfield predicted would happen:

THE THREAD: o http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php/142261-Lucky-and-Good-Orioles-Will-Win-A-L-East-(Schoenfield)

He pointed out the obvious. Toronto and the Yankees were injured, Boston and Tampa just sucked

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[TradeAngelos]

The people who actually matter have the over/under set at 80.5 right now.